Abstract

The decentralized deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems in urbanized polluted mountainous basins faces unique challenges due to complex topography, persistent cloud cover and winter smog conditions. This study quantifies the atmospheric impact of localized winter haze/smog and Saharan dust intrusions on PV performance in the intermontane basin of Ioannina, NW Greece. By integrating a Digital Twin (DT) methodology with real energy production data, two PV plants were evaluated, a ground-based and a rooftop installation, to isolate the energy deficits caused by aerosol attenuation. The DT model demonstrated high accuracy (R2 = 0.847) against actual power generation data for Koutselio and R2 = 0.865 for Mpafra PV plants, while MBE was near zero for both sites (−0.008 kWh and −0.139 kWh, respectively). Error analysis revealed that the highest modeling discrepancies occurred during scattered clouds and intense winter haze conditions, primarily due to low spatial resolution of CAMS that fails to adequately capture localized biomass burning (ΒΒ) events. Despite the reduction in direct sunlight during extreme winter BB events, results indicate that the overall energy loss is mild. This operational stability is primarily due to the ability of c-Si modules to effectively utilize near-infrared radiation, which penetrates the low-level haze layer, alongside the thermal efficiency gains provided by low early-morning temperatures. Crucially, the installation geometry may influence system vulnerability. Direct comparisons revealed a minor power deviation of –4.8% for the ground-based Koutselio plant, while for the Mpafra site, there was a +3.2% production surplus likely linked to the high sky-view factor the rooftop installation has, which manages to capture isotropic diffuse irradiance. However, the low CAMS resolution may misclassify the haze events within the basin, further contributing to these discrepancies. On the contrary, Saharan dust intrusions caused broadband light attenuation, dropping the power production significantly on both installations. Ultimately, this research provides critical insights into the resilience of solar systems under strong air pollution events within polluted valleys in Southern Balkans, highlighting the connection between panel design and atmospheric attenuation.

IPC Classification

Keywords