Abstract

Urbanization often enhances residents’ material living standards but fails to fully satisfy their sports and spiritual needs. Using the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of China as a case study, this study performed statistical, spatial hot/cold spot, and landscape patch analyses to characterize the quantity, spatial configuration, and supply–demand matching characteristics of sport/cultural land (SCL) and park/greenspace land (PGL). This paper proposes a decision support approach for balancing supply and demand of the two land-use types through reasonable population forecasting. The main results were as follows: (1) SCL and PGL varied markedly across BTH. Hebei had the largest SCL and PGL areas, while Tianjin had the smallest; Beijing had the highest area proportion and strongest clustering. (2) Hebei shaped the BTH landscape pattern, with highly fragmented but regular, well-connected, and clustered SCL, while its PGL was intact and strongly connected yet dispersed. Beijing and Tianjin showed opposite features. (3) The per capita SCL and PGL area generally met demands, but spatial mismatches were prominent, peaking in the 1.19 km buffer and concentrated in urban cores. (4) The BTH population will grow fastest in Beijing and slowest in Tianjin. Beijing has the most obvious SCL provision–demand imbalances, and Hebei has the most severe PGL conflicts, mainly in the 1.19 km buffer. These findings unveil the distinct mismatch patterns of recreational land across multi-level urban agglomerations, thereby addressing a research gap regarding spatial mismatch governance for cross-provincial mega-regions in developing nations. The proposed optimization strategies offer practical references for achieving a balanced allocation of recreational land, advancing the Healthy China 2030 initiative and contributing to the attainment of SDG 3.

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