Abstract

Most remote-sensing assessments within China’s large-scale forestry engineering regions have relied primarily on greenness indicators, leaving productivity recovery and remaining restoration potential insufficiently characterized. Here, we assessed vegetation greenness and productivity recovery status, together with habitat-constrained remaining recovery potentials, within China’s Eight Forestry Engineering Regions from 2001 to 2025 using long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and net primary productivity (NPP) datasets and climatic, topographic, and soil variables. Both NDVI and NPP increased significantly across all regions, with overall trends of 0.0029 yr−1 and 3.38 g C m−2 yr−1 per year, respectively. The middle Yellow River shelterbelt region showed the strongest increasing trend, with 94.4% and 98.4% of vegetated pixels exhibiting significant increases in NDVI and NPP, respectively. The sliding-window similar-habitat model revealed that most regions have already approached their habitat-constrained potential states, though substantial remaining potential persisted in parts of the Three-north shelterbelt program and ecotonal areas. Greenness and productivity recovery potentials were positively correlated (Pearson r = 0.637), yet 14.0% of the vegetated area exhibited low greenness but high-productivity remaining potential, indicating that apparent greening does not necessarily translate into equivalent productivity recovery. These findings highlight the importance of jointly evaluating vegetation structural and functional recovery using greenness and productivity indicators. They also provide a scientific basis for differentiated restoration assessment and management within China’s large-scale forestry engineering regions.

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