Abstract

The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo highlights the continued vulnerability of Central Africa to recurrent Ebola emergence. This outbreak emerged less than six months after the previous one ended, appears to represent one of the shortest documented inter-epidemic intervals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo based on currently available outbreak reports. Current surveillance systems remain largely reactive, focusing on the detection of human cases after zoonotic spillover has occurred. While strengthening health systems, diagnostic capacity, and early case detection remains the cornerstone of Ebola preparedness, growing research suggests that environmental and climatic information may eventually contribute to a broader understanding of spillover risk within a One Health framework. However, current evidence remains insufficient to identify validated environmental indicators or operational thresholds capable of predicting Ebola spillover events. Recent modeling studies have demonstrated that environmental drivers of Ebola emergence remain highly context-dependent and cannot yet support operational early warning systems. This commentary argues that continued research integrating environmental monitoring, remote sensing, ecological observations, and epidemiological data may improve understanding of Ebola emergence and eventually contribute to future preparedness strategies. Rather than proposing climate-informed preparedness approaches as an operational prediction tool, we emphasize its potential as a complementary research priority requiring further validation before any operational implementation.

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