Abstract

Hydrological variability affects the operational sustainability of run-of-river hydroelectric plants, particularly in Andean basins with marked climatic seasonality. This study evaluated the effective water availability of the Ambi River basin in Ecuador for the La Algodonera and Atuntaqui hydroelectric plants, integrating hydroclimatic analysis, water balance, flow duration curves, ecological flow estimation using the Tennant method, and hydrological projections from the LSTM network. The results showed marked seasonality in the hydrological regime and allowed the identification of characteristic values of Q20 = 6.98 m3/s, Q50 = 4.29 m3/s and Q95 = 0.98 m3/s, with Q50 being adopted as the design flow because it represents a reliable average condition for the system. The incorporation of the ecological flow established thresholds of 0.471 m3/s in the dry season and 1.413 m3/s in the rainy season, demonstrating that gross water availability is not equivalent to effective availability for generation. Under current conditions, peak power reached 1.92 MW, and monthly energy production ranged between 1.2 and 1.4 GWh during the months of highest availability. The hydrological projection indicated future flows between 0.9 and 9.60 m3/s, while territorial suitability analysis identified favourable areas for future photovoltaic integration, broadening system planning under an integrated water–energy perspective.

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