Abstract

Thailand has committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, requiring a fundamental transformation of its energy system. This study developed an integrated energy modelling framework by coupling the Low-Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) with the Next Energy Modelling System for Optimisation (NEMO) to evaluate Thailand’s long-term energy transition under three scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), and Net Zero 2050 (NZ2050). The novelty of this study lies in integrating sectoral energy demand modelling; least-cost electricity system optimisation; GHG emissions accounting; and system cost assessment within a single framework to evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic implications of decarbonisation pathways. The results show that demand-side GHG emissions increase to 370.7 MtCO2eq by 2050 under BAU, while current policies reduce emissions to 137.6 MtCO2eq but remain insufficient to achieve Thailand’s climate targets. In contrast, the NZ2050 scenario lowers demand-side GHG emissions to 27.23 MtCO2eq (a 93% reduction relative to BAU) through extensive electrification; a 59% improvement in energy intensity; accelerated renewable energy deployment; coal phase-out by 2045; and the deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Residual transport emissions are reduced to 23 MtCO2eq and offset through carbon removal measures. On the supply side, least-cost optimisation reduces power-sector emissions to 2.9 MtCO2eq while lowering electricity generation costs by approximately 47% through an optimised renewable-based generation mix. The findings demonstrate that Thailand’s net-zero target is technically feasible and economically viable; the integrated LEAP–NEMO framework provides a robust decision-support tool for national energy planning and other emerging economies pursuing cost-effective net-zero transitions.

IPC Classification

Keywords