Abstract

The Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games represent a significant departure from traditional mega-event models due to their markedly polycentric territorial structure. This study investigates the sustainability of this “decentralized” model by analyzing the environmental impact of mobility flows across a vast geographic area. Adopting a methodological approach, the research integrates historical attendance data from previous Winter Games with official projections and travel time simulations to model the event’s carbon footprint. Specifically, the framework quantifies gas emissions by categorizing mobility flows into external international travel and internal inter-cluster transit. The analysis highlights a significant discrepancy between the stated sustainability objectives and the actual implementation of the infrastructural plan. Findings reveal that the total carbon debt is heavily driven by international travel, yet the localized impact on Alpine clusters remains critical due to a persistent reliance on road infrastructure over rail systems. The results suggest a “paradox of decentralized sustainability”, where the benefits of reusing existing sporting venues are offset by the environmental costs of connecting geographically fragmented sites. We conclude that without a robust and efficient public transport network, territorial dispersion acts as a catalyst for widespread anthropogenic pressure on fragile mountain ecosystems, challenging the long-term ecological legacy of the event. By empirically exposing these dynamics, this study offers a novel evaluative framework for assessing the true sustainability of distributed governance in future mega-events.

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