Abstract

Progressive slope failures in open pit mining are characterized by accelerating deformations that can be monitored and potentially forecast. While current monitoring practice emphasizes velocity-based parameters and the inverse velocity method for failure prediction, the role of acceleration in understanding failure mechanisms and improving early warning systems remains underexplored. This paper presents a conceptual and analytical framework for characterizing acceleration in progressive slope failures. We introduce the concept of slope damage as a cumulative measure of positive accelerations over time, and demonstrate its utility in identifying the Onset of Acceleration (OOA), defined as the critical transition from regressive to progressive failure. We further examine the geotechnical conditions necessary for the inverse velocity method to be valid, proposing that a fully or nearly fully mobilized failure surface is required for sustained acceleration. The conceptual link among rock bridge degradation, fracture network connectivity, and the OOA framework is explored using the Network Connectivity Index (NCI), which is presented as a hypothesis for future numerical investigation and systematic empirical testing. This work contributes to the fundamental understanding of progressive failure mechanisms and provides practical guidance for acceleration-based slope monitoring.

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