Abstract

Electric vehicle (EV) charging demand introduces significant variability in power systems, requiring forecasting approaches capable of representing both aggregated consumption trends and stochastic charging behaviors. While machine learning methods often provide strong predictive performance, they generally require large datasets and substantial computational resources. This paper proposes a stochastic framework based on compound Poisson and Cox processes to model EV charging demand using real charging station data collected at one-minute resolution. The proposed methodology jointly models charging-event arrivals, charging duration, and charging power through probabilistic distributions calibrated from historical observations. A compound homogeneous Poisson process (CHPP) and a double stochastic compound Poisson process (Cox process) are investigated and compared for the generation of synthetic EV charging profiles and short-term forecasting applications. The framework is validated using 1863 charging sessions recorded at a workplace charging infrastructure composed of 37 charging terminals. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to generate synthetic daily charging profiles and evaluate the capability of the models to reproduce key operational indicators, including daily energy consumption and peak grid power demand. The CHPP process achieves average forecasting errors up to 0.8% for daily energy and 6.2% for maximum grid power demand. The results show that Poisson-based stochastic models can generate diverse and realistic charging profiles while requiring only limited historical data and having low computational complexity. The proposed approach provides an interpretable and computationally efficient probabilistic framework for EV charging demand forecasting, synthetic profile generation, and power system operational studies. Stochastic compound Poisson processes may therefore constitute a valuable tool to support the ongoing electrification of mobility and the digital transformation of future smart grids and smart cities.

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