Abstract

The temporal dynamics of shot quality in elite football remain poorly understood, despite well-documented declines in physical and technical performance during matches. This study aimed to analyze the evolution of advanced shot metrics across match halves and 15 min intervals in elite men’s and women’s international competitions. A total of 4074 shots from the UEFA European Championships were examined. To ensure methodological consistency among the three advanced shooting metrics (expected goals, xG; expected shot impact timing, xSIT; and expected goals on target, xGOT), analyses were restricted to shots on target (men: 775; women: 554), as xGOT can only be calculated for on-target attempts. Shot quality was assessed using xG, xSIT and xGOT. Differences between halves were evaluated using the Mann–Whitney U test, while temporal trends were analyzed through linear mixed-effects models. Results showed no significant differences between halves in shot distribution or quality metrics in either competition (all p > 0.05). Likewise, no significant temporal variations were found across the six match intervals for any metric. Women’s football exhibited a largely stable quality of shots on target throughout the match. In men’s competitions, although a significant difference in xG was observed (p = 0.04, effect sizes were trivial (d = −0.17), and no consistent patterns emerged in xSIT or xGOT. No sex-related differences were observed. Overall, shot quality remained stable despite match progression, suggesting that changes in goal frequency are not driven by variations in the intrinsic quality of shooting opportunities. Therefore, these findings suggest that optimizing the contextual conditions that facilitate the creation of shooting opportunities may be as important as, or more important than, focusing solely on shooting execution.

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