Abstract

In large-scale seismic scenarios, the operational continuity of evacuation shelters is frequently compromised by limited governmental capacity, necessitating the strategic integration of Disaster Relief Volunteers (DRVs). Traditional assessments often rely on coarse regional aggregates, overlooking the critical spatial mismatch between volunteer availability and localized demand. In this study, a high-resolution, spatially explicit framework was developed to evaluate urban operational resilience in New Taipei City. Utilizing the TERIA platform, a nocturnal magnitude 6.8 Shanjiao Fault rupture was simulated, identifying that approximately 460,000 individuals would be affected, with shelter demand reaching 300,000—double the current capacity. Service areas were delineated using ArcGIS Network Analyst (Dijkstra’s algorithm) based on an 800 m walking threshold, further refined by a secondary assignment rule to redistribute “shadow demand” from peripheral populations. Quantitative analysis of the newly introduced “DRV shortfall” metric reveals that 74% of shelters (148/200) face concurrent spatial and manpower saturation. Notably, 42 analysis units lack resident volunteers entirely, with the most severe shortfall magnitude reaching 361 DRVs at a single “high-risk convergence node”. These results uncover a profound deficiency in urban disaster resilience driven by significant spatial mismatch. This research contributes a three-fold advancement: (i) the high-resolution coupling of volunteer residential data with dynamic demand patterns; (ii) the formalization of the DRV shortfall as a standardized metric for resource adequacy; and (iii) the formulation of a strategic policy framework for multi-shelter activation sequencing, “Support Hub” designation, and resource synchronization in hyper-dense urban environments.

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