Abstract

The palladium market represents a critical role in supporting key industrial sectors and facilitating the energy transition, as it is widely used in the automotive industry, electronics, chemical manufacturing, and hydrogen energy. These sectors influence a steady demand amid tightening environmental regulations and the development of green technologies. The aim of this study is to assess the structural transformation of the global palladium market through 2030 and to project Russian palladium production for 2026–2028 amid the energy transition by applying economic-mathematical methods, including linear regression, the Grey forecasting model, exponential smoothing, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series modeling. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of factors influencing the dynamics of the global palladium market, including the electrification of transportation, the substitution of palladium with alternative materials, and changes in global supply chains. The simulation results showed that the exponential smoothing model possesses the highest predictive accuracy, enabling it to estimate future palladium production volumes. The market is undergoing a structural transformation: declining demand from the traditional automotive sector is partially offset by the development of new applications in hydrogen energy, electronics, and advanced materials, suggesting that technological improvements can compensate for the loss of conventional demand segments. The key findings are (1) exponential smoothing (R2 = 0.9812) outperforms linear regression, Grey model, and ARIMA; (2) Russian palladium production is projected at 74–130 tonnes (2026), 63–141 tonnes (2027), and 54–150 tonnes (2028); and (3) the decline in automotive demand is partially offset by new applications. Our findings confirm the need for Russian producers to adapt their strategies to the structural transformation of global demand, deepen domestic processing, and develop new high-tech applications for palladium to maintain their competitive positions amid the energy transition.

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