Abstract

Battery pack fires remain a critical safety concern for lithium-ion battery systems. This study presents a comprehensive application of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to identify and structure the sequences of failures that may lead to a battery pack fire. A detailed fault tree is developed for a cell–module–pack architecture equipped with a thermal management system, enabling a clear representation of failure pathways. The analysis highlights four main origins of battery pack fire. Each intermediate scenario is described through dedicated branches of the fault tree to enhance clarity and facilitate its adoption for other battery pack designs and use-cases. As most failure modes involved in battery pack fire do not have reliable probability data available or exhibit strong dependency on usage conditions, a fuzzy logic-based expert approach is employed. Probabilistic data are collected through a questionnaire, allowing the assignment of probabilities to undocumented failure events. A quantified use-case is presented for an electric vehicle, illustrating the practical application of the methodology. The objective of this work is to demonstrate a structured and adaptable methodology for applying FTA to lithium-ion battery pack fire risk analysis. The resulting fault tree, provided as open-access supplementary material, aims to support safety analysis, highlight critical protection failures, and identify current limitations in battery pack safety systems. It can also help identify critical components in order to support the development of rapid and targeted diagnostic strategies for battery packs throughout their lifetime.

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