Abstract

The realization of forest ecological product value has been promoted as an important pathway for reconciling ecological conservation with rural prosperity. However, it remains unclear whether the growth of forest ecological product value has been synchronized with improvements in farmers’ livelihoods. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022, this study develops an integrated framework combining allometric growth analysis, a Bayesian hierarchical symbiotic coefficient model, a Lotka–Volterra interaction model, a multi-period difference-in-differences design and LightGBM-SHAP interpretation. The results show that 87% of provinces exhibit negative allometric growth, indicating that forest ecological product value has generally grown faster than farmers’ income. The national symbiotic coefficient increased before 2019 but declined thereafter, suggesting a weakening ecological-livelihood synergy. The multi-period DID results indicate that the 2017 Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Policy significantly weakened the symbiotic relationship in pilot provinces. LightGBM-SHAP further shows that financial development, technological progress and transportation infrastructure are key variables associated with symbiotic equilibrium, with substantial regional heterogeneity. These findings suggest that ecological product value realization and green finance do not automatically translate into inclusive livelihood benefits. More targeted benefit-sharing, financial transmission and farmer-participation mechanisms are needed to promote forest-based ecological prosperity.

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