Abstract

Urban expansion is known to drive biodiversity loss in China, but the future impacts of rural built-up land change remain a critical blind spot. Unlike concentrated urban growth, rural development is dispersed and closely tied to livelihood transitions, yet no studies have systematically projected its biodiversity consequences under alternative socioeconomic pathways. To understand the magnitude and distribution of such impacts, we explore spatially explicit projections of China’s urban-rural settlement dynamics from 2020 to 2070, and assess the impacts on biodiversity. By 2070, urban areas are projected to expand to 1.29–1.74 times their 2020 levels, with the most significant growth occurring in eastern China. Rural built-up land increases under scenarios SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP4, except for SSP5, with rural shrinkage mainly occurring in eastern and southwestern China. Habitat loss caused by the expansion of rural built-up areas is expected to surpass that caused by urban expansion. Furthermore, habitat loss resulting from cropland displacement will exceed the loss from built-up area expansion. Birds and reptiles are identified as the most vulnerable groups to the expansion of rural-urban built-up areas. The findings contribute to more coordinated biodiversity conservation efforts and provide scientific support for achieving sustainable development goals.

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