Abstract

In Spain, inbound European tourism exhibits marked territorial imbalances whose evolution is difficult to characterize using aggregate indicators. This study analyzes its spatiotemporal patterns at the municipal level between July 2019 and December 2025 based on experimental statistics from the National Institute of Statistics compiled using mobile phone data. The objective is to identify processes of growth, persistence, and spatial intensification using a geospatial methodology based on the Space–Time Cube (STC) and Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA). The analysis covers the 1000 municipalities with the highest cumulative volume of European tourists, which account for most of the flows recorded during the period. The results show positive and statistically significant temporal trends in 911 municipalities, although the formation of persistent spatial clusters is considerably less widespread. EHSA identified 48 municipalities classified as hot spots when applying a one-month temporal neighborhood and 77 when using a three-month configuration. The two classifications showed an observed agreement of 96.0% and, for the four shared categories, a Cohen’s kappa coefficient of 0.660. The post-pandemic recovery in tourism did not, therefore, result in a homogeneous territorial consolidation of stable spatial patterns. We identify persistent hubs, areas undergoing intensification, and destinations with episodic behavior, located primarily in metropolitan, coastal, and island areas. The main contribution of the study lies in the development of a reproducible workflow based on the STC–EHSA integration, capable of distinguishing between temporal growth, persistence, intensification, and spatial intermittency, and of evaluating the stability of the results under different temporal neighborhood configurations.

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