Abstract

There is an important debate about the appropriate policy measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector. Strong expansion of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) following a ban on the registration of new vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) by 2035 is a prominent but controversial proposal. To evaluate achievable GHG emission reductions, it is essential to understand the temporal dynamics of such a fleet transition. This study provides a time-resolved, policy-oriented quantification of annual and cumulative lifecycle GHG emissions during this process. Therefore, it uses an annual simulation model to assess GHG emissions from vehicle production and use during the transition of Germany’s passenger car fleet between 2019 and 2060. The analysis compares an ICE registration ban by 2035 with alternative scenarios and evaluates the effects of electricity decarbonization, greener BEV production, and the supply of additional Zero Emission Fuels (ZEFs). This study reveals a substantial time lag of 10–20 years between changes in new vehicle registrations and effective emission reductions. Even with a complete ICE ban by 2035, annual GHG emissions decline by only 3.7% by 2030 relative to 2025, while cumulative emissions over this period fall by just 1.6%. Larger reductions occur later, reaching 39% in 2040, 77% in 2050, and 82% in 2060 compared with 2025; cumulative emissions until 2060 decrease by 45%. Without an ICE ban and with a 75% BEV share from 2035 onward, cumulative reductions fall to 34%. Introducing additional ZEFs equivalent to 10% of 2030 fuel demand increases this value to 41%, compensating for much of the lower BEV uptake.

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