Abstract

Mediterranean islands face increasing climate risks from rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, extreme precipitation, and sea-level rise, while seasonal tourism intensifies water and energy demand during the most vulnerable periods of the year. This study examines whether incorporating tourism as an intrinsic component of the Water–Energy–Food nexus changes the assessment of climate risks in desalination-dependent island water systems. To address this question, the Water–Energy–Food (WEF) nexus is extended to Water–Energy–Food–Tourism (WEFT) and integrated into an EU-aligned Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment framework. The approach is applied to the Hermoupolis Water Supply System on Syros Island, Greece, where potable water supply depends largely on energy-intensive desalination. A technically bounded climate risk assessment is compared with a WEFT-adjusted assessment that accounts for tourism-driven demand amplification and water–energy interdependencies while keeping hazard exposure and likelihood climate-driven. The results show that heatwaves constitute the dominant near-term risk because they coincide with peak water demand and high electricity requirements for desalination. When tourism amplification is included, drought-related risks shift from medium to high already in the near future for key production and pumping components, indicating earlier emergence of critical risk conditions without changes in hazard probability. Coastal risks become more important toward the end of the century, especially under high-emission scenarios. The main contribution of the study is to show that tourism-driven amplification can be operationally incorporated into sensitivity and impact assessment while preserving comparability with a conventional CRVA. The proposed WEFT–KTM framework provides a transferable basis for assessing and prioritizing adaptation in desalination-dependent, tourism-driven Mediterranean island systems.

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