Abstract

In the highly climate- and ecology-sensitive eastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), understanding the adaptation behaviors of agro-pastoralists is crucial for reconfiguring human–climate–ecosystem interactions. However, existing studies often overlook the bounded rationality of micro-level decision-makers. Based on behavioral decision theory, this study constructs a “Perception–Capital–Adaptation” analytical framework. Utilizing micro-survey data from 890 agro-pastoralist households and employing Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models, this paper systematically explores how environmental risk perception and livelihood capital are jointly associated with livelihood strategy choices and land-use behaviors. The findings reveal that (1) risk perception exhibits significant heterogeneity: sudden risks show a strong association with risk-avoidance transitions, whereas gradual risks often manifest as traditional livelihood lock-in due to “cognitive lag.” (2) The moderation of capital exhibits non-linear characteristics: physical and natural capital correspond to path dependence on existing production, while financial capital may be associated with expansionary behaviors, reflecting “maladaptation” in specific contexts. (3) Their interaction corresponds to a duality of adaptation pathways: a coordinated pathway (balancing ecological conservation and livestock reduction) and a conflictive pathway (maintaining production scale). Accordingly, a “risk-capital” trade-off matrix is constructed to identify four typical adaptation patterns: risk-avoidance transformation, path-dependent persistence, resilience-driven expansion, and fragile maintenance. This study demonstrates that climate adaptation essentially reflects the dynamic trade-offs made by boundedly rational actors between cognitive constraints and capital structures, providing a novel micro-behavioral perspective for avoiding maladaptation.

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