Abstract

Increasing external shocks have made the structural stability and vulnerability of the global corn trade network (GCTN) increasingly prominent. Based on country-level bilateral corn trade data, this study constructs a directed and weighted GCTN for each of 2004, 2014, and 2024. By integrating complex network indicators with a non-persistent attack simulation method, this study systematically examines the structural evolution and vulnerability changes in the GCTN at both the network and node levels. The results show that the GCTN has continuously expanded and is undergoing a structural transition from a random-like network toward a scale-free network. The United States has consistently remained the dominant supply center, while the export capacities of Ukraine and Brazil have increased substantially. Japan, South Korea, and Mexico have remained major demand centers, whereas China has shifted from a major exporter to a major importer. The regionalization of the strongest-link network has continued to strengthen. In 2024, the network exhibited higher clustering, greater path diversity, and improved transmission efficiency. Even after the failure of a relatively high proportion of nodes, the remaining network was still able to maintain or even improve its functions, indicating enhanced structural redundancy and stronger short-term resistance to local node disruptions. Although the number of vulnerable countries has declined, 13 countries remain persistently vulnerable. These findings provide empirical evidence for improving agricultural trade resilience and food security governance.

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