Abstract

The study investigates whether cultivated land abandonment (CLA) reflects structural transformation or an intensifying crisis. CLA is defined as land that has remained uncultivated for a minimum of two consecutive years, with the exclusion of land that is subject to deliberate programs such as the “Grain-for-Green” initiative. Utilizing the China Land Cover Dataset and a moving-window approach, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal patterns across 2847 Chinese counties from 1992 to 2022. The research employed OLS, Tobit, high-dimensional fixed effects and instrumental variable regressions. The findings of the present study indicate an annual average abandonment rate of 2.3995%, with 12.3649% of cropland abandoned at least once and 9.2028% reclaimed, suggesting a fragile equilibrium. The Huang-Huai-Hai region and Northeast China’s plains emerged as low-abandonment clusters. Cropland fragmentation was found to trigger abandonment, while a higher ecological land ratio significantly exacerbates CLA. Rural labor migration and urbanization drive cumulative abandonment, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective governance requires context-specific interventions that address key constraints and integrate land reuse into sustainable rural development frameworks. The research methods and theoretical mechanisms presented offer a reference for balancing food security, rural revitalization, and ecological sustainability worldwide.

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