Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has posed serious risks to global food security, by causing substantial crop yield losses since 2022. Accurate yield estimation helps policymakers to plan compensation, yet modelling yields in conflict regions remains challenging due to significant non-meteorological disruptions. This study proposes a novel framework to quantify war-related crop yield losses by comparing estimations derived from meteorological data, representing weather-driven yield variability, with those based on Earth observation (EO) data, reflecting actual crop conditions influenced by both weather and conflict. Thus, meteorologically based yield estimates are expected to exceed those derived from EO data, with the difference indicating war-related losses. Both, meteorological- and EO-based models, are developed using transfer learning (TL) to estimate yields of maize, winter wheat, and spring barley. Models are initially trained on EU country data and subsequently finetuned with Ukrainian data. Their performance is compared to two non-TL approaches: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to test their reliability. Results show crop yield losses for maize; however, since we do not detect losses in the other crops, we conclude that simply comparing meteorological- and EO-based models proves insufficient to fully isolate conflict effects due to strong interactions of EO and meteorological data. Nevertheless, TL substantially enhances prediction accuracy (R2 around 0.7), exceeding alternative models by 0.05–0.2 across crops. These findings demonstrate the value of TL for yield modelling in data-scarce environments and underscore the need for improved methodologies to quantify conflict-induced agricultural losses.

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