Archive/Toward a Public-Sector Resilience Reporting Standard for Low-Probability, High-Impact Systemic Risks: A Pre-Standard Architecture for Government Preparedness Under Deep Uncertainty
Toward a Public-Sector Resilience Reporting Standard for Low-Probability, High-Impact Systemic Risks: A Pre-Standard Architecture for Government Preparedness Under Deep Uncertainty
Haris Alibašić
July 28, 2026
en

Abstract

Public-sector sustainability and climate reporting increasingly address environmental exposure, governance, and financial effects, yet existing frameworks do not adequately disclose preparedness for low-probability, high-impact systemic risks whose probabilities, timing, thresholds, and transmission channels remain deeply uncertain. This article develops a Public-Sector Resilience Reporting Standard (PSRRS) as a pre-standard architecture for government preparedness disclosure. The design has three bounded objectives: diagnose cross-framework disclosure gaps, translate these gaps into a theoretically grounded capability-to-disclosure architecture, and demonstrate its analytical use through an illustrative Florida application and two hazard-neutral stress tests. The documentary corpus includes international sustainability and public-sector reporting standards, ISO and UNDRR resilience and continuity instruments, three Florida resilience documents, and peer-reviewed literature on resilience governance, decision-making under deep uncertainty, critical infrastructure interdependency, catastrophic uncertainty, climate-risk disclosure, public finance, climate-risk pricing, local-government credit risk, investor attention, and ransomware service disruption. A structured interpretive coding protocol classifies each framework as explicit, partial, or not explicit across nine disclosure dimensions; a codebook appendix identifies the assessment criteria, the a priori and inductively refined dimensions, and the validation boundaries. Florida is not treated as a basis for statistical or jurisdictional generalization. Instead, it illustrates how a comparatively developed resilience architecture may disclose statutory continuity, critical-asset data, project ranking, and output metrics while leaving systemic dependencies, adaptive triggers, long-horizon fiscal exposure, residual service risk, distributional effects, and assurance mechanisms insufficiently visible in the reviewed reporting corpus. AMOC and case-grounded cyber-fiscal stress tests show how the PSRRS shifts reporting from hazard inventories and funded projects toward auditable evidence of institutional capacity, adaptive readiness, and public-value protection. The article specifies mandatory, recommended, and optional clauses, evidence requirements, indicator examples, a disclosure index, a sample report structure, and a three-tier pilot conformity model. The contribution is conceptual and operational, but not yet a validated formal standard; cross-jurisdictional piloting, inter-rater coding, cost testing, assurance testing, and stakeholder consultation are identified as the next stage of standardization.

IPC Classification

G06A61

Keywords

towardpublic-sectorresiliencereportingstandardlow-probabilityhigh-impactsystemicriskspre-standardarchitecturegovernmentpreparednessdeepuncertaintystandardssustainabilityclimateincreasinglyaddressenvironmentalexposuregovernancefinancial
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