Abstract

Digital twins are increasingly adopted in geographic research as dynamic representations of environmental systems; however, their application to regulated river shorelines remains limited, particularly where bathymetric change, hydrological variability, and shoreline-state dynamics must be integrated within a single GIS-based framework. This study develops and validates a GIS-based spatiotemporal digital twin-oriented framework for the dam-affected shoreline downstream of the Włocławek Dam, Poland. The framework integrates four bathymetric surveys acquired in 2008–2011, water-level records, airborne laser scanning data, and three-dimensional hydrotechnical infrastructure within a unified geodatabase designed for dynamic shoreline-state reconstruction, multi-epoch analysis, and environmental monitoring. A key methodological element is the treatment of water level as a dynamic reference surface, enabling the automated delineation of inundation and exposure zones for observed and scenario-based hydrological conditions. The reconstructed bathymetric surfaces were organized as a multidimensional raster dataset with time as an explicit analytical dimension, supporting repeatable change detection, cross-sectional interpretation, and temporal trend analysis. To extend the framework beyond purely retrospective analysis, a near-real-time hydrological updating component was implemented through ingestion of operational water-level observations from the IMGW API into the geodatabase. Validation of the trend-based prediction for 2011 yielded R2 = 0.967, RMSE = 0.44 m, MAE = 0.28 m, and bias = −0.06 m. The proposed framework provides a transferable geospatial basis for spatiotemporal modelling and monitoring of regulated river shoreline dynamics under changing hydrological conditions.

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