Abstract

Wildfires are an increasing threat to Mediterranean ecosystems and populated areas. This study proposes an innovative static wildfire risk assessment methodology for the Apulia Region (southern Italy). The framework produces a Fire Risk Global Index (FRGi) by spatially combining two sub-indices related to risk, which are hazard and vulnerability, in line with European Community and United Nations guidelines. Hazard is quantified through five sub-indices—vegetational, historical, climatic, morphological, and anthropogenic—combined into a Long-Term Danger Index (LTDi). Vulnerability integrates ecological, economic, and wildland-urban interface components into a Fire Vulnerability Index (FVi). All processing was performed in an open-source GIS environment (QGIS) at a spatial resolution of 20 m, ensuring full reproducibility for public administrations. Preliminary validation confirms the internal consistency of the model, demonstrating a statistically significant relationship between risk classes and historical fire occurrence. Beyond its scientific contribution, the methodology serves as an operational tool for civil protection planning at the regional scale.

Keywords