Abstract

Land-use change in arid urban agglomerations reshapes landscape ecological risk (LER) and ecosystem service value (ESV), yet few studies jointly diagnose their current coupling state, temporal trajectory, and future scenario response. Focusing on the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, we integrated land-use data for 2000, 2010, and 2020 with LER assessment, ESV estimation, static–dynamic coupling zoning, and intPLUS-based 2030 scenario simulation. From 2000 to 2020, cropland and construction land expanded by 46.43% and 107.84%, whereas forest and water bodies declined by 49.76% and 47.64%. LER was dominated by low- and medium-low-risk classes, although medium-high-risk areas expanded locally. Total ESV declined from 512.16 to 429.97 billion CNY, with continued contraction of medium-high- and high-ESV zones. In 2020, potential enhancement zones (PEZs) dominated the integrated management pattern, accounting for 43.64% of the study area. By 2030, static zoning changed only slightly, whereas dynamic and integrated zoning showed clear scenario sensitivity: PEZs accounted for 40.55% under the natural development scenario, while priority governance zones reached 49.06% and 49.26% under economic development and ecological protection scenarios. By treating LER as risk pressure and ESV as service-supply capacity, this framework links static risk–service matching, dynamic trajectory diagnosis, and future scenario response, thereby supporting ecological zoning in arid urban agglomerations.

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