Abstract

Decarbonizing industrial heating in cold climates remains challenging due to high thermal demand and strong seasonal variability. While the existing literature predominantly relies on steady-state or isolated component analyses, this study introduces a novel, multi-scale dynamic modeling framework. This framework evaluates the annual transient performance of an integrated renewable architecture. The proposed system couples a building-envelope Transpired Solar Collector (TSC) with a series-connected Photovoltaic Thermal/Solar Thermal (PVT-ST) array. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is employed to resolve the localized convective heat transfer within the TSC. Subsequently, a data-driven clustering methodology scales these transient results into a comprehensive annual system-level simulation featuring sensible Thermal Energy Storage (TES). The results demonstrate robust performance under Canadian winter conditions. The TSC maintains stable thermal efficiencies between 50% and 60%, peaking at over 64%. Annually, the integrated dual-source system delivers 229.7 MWh of useful thermal energy to offset primary fossil fuel consumption. Furthermore, the analysis identifies 128.76 MWh of seasonal surplus capacity. This underscores the critical necessity of dynamic TES integration. Ultimately, this framework establishes a highly defensible, predictive methodology for designing and implementing synergistic solar thermal networks for industrial decarbonization.

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