Abstract

This study presents a nuanced understanding of how butterflies may respond to climate change, suggesting that although many species could experience noticeable contractions in their climatic niches, a substantial number may still have the potential to considerably expand their geographic ranges. We modeled the distributions of 200 butterfly species across Asia using the MaxEnt algorithm. Habitat suitability maps were produced for both current conditions and future scenarios under moderate (SSP245) and high (SSP585) greenhouse gas emissions. To analyze niche dynamics, we projected the realized niches of species onto principal component environmental spaces, which allowed us to quantify key processes including niche stability, expansion, unfilling, abandonment, and pioneering. These indices were then mapped spatially to identify potential changes in climatic niche configurations and geographic distributions in response to climate change. Our findings indicate that by 2070, under the moderate-emissions scenario (SSP245), 185 species are projected to show expansion in suitable habitat by an average of 38%, while 15 species may face an average decline of 11%. Under the high-emissions scenario (SSP585), 184 species are projected to show increases in suitable habitat by 55% on average, with 16 species showing an average decrease of 13%. Additionally, species are predicted to maintain approximately 63% of their current climatic niche stability under SSP585. Niche expansion averages 12%, reflecting potential range growth, whereas unfilling accounts for around 16%, indicating possible loss of some currently suitable areas. Niche abandonment or niche contraction, representing climatic spaces no longer projected to be occupied, comprises about 8%, and pioneering into entirely new climatic conditions remains limited at roughly 1%. The modeled presence of niche unfilling and abandonment suggests that butterflies may retain considerable ecological flexibility, potentially allowing them to shift into new environments under changing climate conditions. This projected adaptability may enhance their resilience by facilitating potential movement into novel or previously unoccupied habitats, though actual range shifts will depend on factors beyond climatic suitability alone.

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