Abstract

This study evaluates the implications of Egypt’s accession to the BRICS+ bloc by integrating a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity model with a comprehensive PESTEL analysis. Using panel data on Egypt’s bilateral trade with BRICS+ from 2005 to 2024, our econometric results reveal that partner-country economic size and cultural proximity are the primary drivers of trade, whereas geographical distance exerts a negligible effect. Furthermore, trade policy variables—specifically tariffs, exchange rate fluctuations, and existing preferential trade agreements—significantly shape trade flows, while logistics performance and general trade openness demonstrate limited short-term impact. Beyond trade mechanics, the PESTEL analysis indicates that while BRICS+ membership enhances Egypt’s strategic autonomy and broadens its political influence, tangible economic gains remain heavily constrained by persistent structural trade imbalances and a lack of export diversification. Although the bloc offers valuable opportunities for human capital development and green infrastructure financing, technological cooperation is hindered by capacity disparities, and the soft-law nature of the alliance limits the enforceability of economic agreements. Ultimately, this study concludes that to maximize the benefits of BRICS+, Egypt must implement sustained structural reforms aimed at upgrading industrial competitiveness, diversifying its export base, strengthening domestic technological capabilities, and embedding itself more deeply within global value chains.

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