Abstract

Understanding the factors controlling tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) variability is essential for improving air-quality assessment and environmental management in tropical regions. This study analyzed the spatial and interannual variability of tropospheric NO2 in ten municipalities of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, located within the Cerrado–Pantanal transition zone, during the period 2020–2024. Tropospheric NO2 column densities were obtained from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI observations and integrated with environmental and anthropogenic indicators, including fire density derived from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), land-use and land-cover data from MapBiomas, road density, and meteorological variables obtained from CEMTEC-MS. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression were applied to evaluate the relationships between NO2 concentrations and the explanatory variables. The results revealed moderate spatial variability of tropospheric NO2, with annual mean column densities ranging from 1.42 × 10−5 to 1.74 × 10−5 mol·m−2. Higher concentrations were observed in municipalities characterized by greater urbanization and transport infrastructure, particularly Três Lagoas, Corumbá, and Ladário. Pasture area exhibited the strongest negative association with NO2 concentrations (r = −0.81, p = 0.004), followed by agricultural area (r = −0.67, p = 0.034), whereas fire density showed a moderate positive relationship with NO2 variability (r = 0.62, p = 0.056), highlighting the contribution of biomass burning to regional atmospheric pollution. Meteorological variables, especially precipitation and wind speed, also influenced NO2 distribution through atmospheric removal and dispersion processes. These findings demonstrate that tropospheric NO2 variability in Mato Grosso do Sul is controlled by the combined effects of land use, biomass burning, urban infrastructure, and meteorological conditions. The study provides new insights into the environmental drivers of atmospheric pollution in the Cerrado–Pantanal transition region and contributes to the development of monitoring and air-quality management strategies in tropical environments.

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