Abstract

Forest fire susceptibility mapping is an important component of disaster risk reduction, particularly in transitional climatic zones such as Anhui Province, China. Traditional approaches often rely on expert weighting (AHP) or linear assumptions, which may be insufficient for capturing the complex, non-linear interactions of fire drivers. This study develops a data-driven framework integrating 816 field-surveyed fuel plots with MODIS active fire data (2000–2025). We applied a systematic preprocessing pipeline, including 1–99% Winsorization to reduce the influence of sensor outliers, Non-Linear Gamma Curvature Normalization to represent asymmetrical risk responses, and a spatial buffer-based pseudo-absence protocol combined with semantic land-cover masking to reduce label ambiguity and macro-environmental bias. Benchmarking against seven machine learning algorithms on a naturally balanced dataset showed that the Random Forest (RF) model achieved the highest test-set performance among the evaluated models (Test AUC = 0.831). Youden’s J statistic was used to define a data-driven risk threshold. The results suggest that topographic configuration and forest stand density act as important baseline constraints and interact with physiological moisture stress indicators to influence fire susceptibility. The species-level risk analysis was broadly consistent with ecological expectations: coniferous forests showed the highest predicted high-risk proportion (79.10%), whereas soft broadleaves showed a substantially lower predicted high-risk proportion (4.29%). Spatial mapping indicated a “South-High, North-Low” pattern associated with topographic forcing and fuel continuity, which may provide useful information for regional fire management and the planning of green firebreaks.

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