Abstract

Postoperative wound healing complications present a major challenge in plastic and reconstructive surgery, prolonging recovery and impairing outcomes. Early risk identification is difficult due to complex interactions among clinical, laboratory, and molecular factors. This study developed and evaluated machine-learning (ML) models to predict wound healing outcomes and identify key complication predictors. Utilizing a dataset of 95 women and 76 variables (including hematological, biochemical, coagulation, and gene expression profiles), we evaluated several ML approaches, including Decision Tree, Extra Trees, Gaussian/Bernoulli Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine. Model performance was assessed via k-fold cross-validation, ROC analysis, and SHAP feature importance. Molecular markers (COL1A1, MMP9, MAPK1, MAPK8, IL10, and CCL2) emerged as the strongest predictors, whereas conventional clinical variables showed limited value. The models achieved high discriminative performance, with validation ROC–AUC values ranging from 0.903 to 0.913. Extra Trees and Gaussian Naive Bayes demonstrated the highest sensitivity for detecting complications (Recall = 0.820 ± 0.238 and 0.807 ± 0.246, respectively). These findings highlight the value of integrating molecular-genetic biomarkers with ML for personalized risk stratification and preventive care in reconstructive surgery.

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