Abstract

Pandemic response requires not only epidemiological control but also the allocation of limited social resources across competing uses. This paper develops an integrated economic–epidemiological framework to examine how resources should be allocated among goods production, preventive intervention, and therapeutic intervention during an infectious disease outbreak. Building on the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, the analysis treats the infection rate and the recovery rate as policy-sensitive variables shaped by preventive and therapeutic resource allocation. The objective is intentionally parsimonious and focuses on output preservation and resource allocation under epidemic constraints; infections affect the economy indirectly by reducing effective labor input and output. Two epidemiological environments are considered: one with permanent immunity after recovery and another with possible reinfection. The results reveal a robust timing pattern across both environments. Preventive allocation tends to peak before the surge in infections, whereas therapeutic allocation tends to move more closely with the infection trajectory. The analysis also makes explicit the opportunity cost of intervention: allocating more resources to prevention or treatment reduces the resources available for goods production. Phase-diagram representations clarify the mechanism behind this timing distinction, and sensitivity analyses over alternative curvature parameters confirm that the qualitative ordering of the peaks is robust. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of pandemic response depends not only on the total amount of intervention resources, but also on their timing and functional allocation. By linking epidemic dynamics, resource scarcity, and policy timing within a unified optimization framework, the paper contributes to economic–epidemiological modeling and offers implications for pandemic preparedness, health-system resilience, and the design of response strategies for future infectious disease emergencies.

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