Abstract

This paper develops and evaluates a predictive analytics framework for influencer marketing return on investment (ROI), integrating hybrid deep learning architectures with trust-aware modelling to address the dual purpose of (a) developing a rigorous evaluation framework for influencer campaign performance and (b) examining the effectiveness of influencer marketing predictors. The concept of influencer marketing has quickly grown to be one of the most effective mediums within the contemporary digital advertising landscape. Due to the growing number of brands dedicating huge amounts of budgets to social media partnerships, the importance of data-driven approaches that can predict the outcomes of campaigns and, consequently, ensure the best possible return on investment (ROI) has become urgent. This paper introduces a machine learning system that can be used to forecast the sales of products promoted by influencer marketing campaigns based on campaign-level features, including type of platform, influencer type, type of campaign, time of the year, number of engagements, estimated reach, and campaign duration. A publicly available influencer marketing ROI dataset was trained and tested on an XGBoost regression model with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.95 indicating high predictive power and generalization. The results show that engagement metrics and estimated reach are some of the most impactful factors in sales performance, and additional contextual factors like platform selection, type of campaign, and timing of the year also moderate results. In addition to predictive modelling, this paper explains how artificial intelligence (AI) can be strategically integrated throughout the influencer marketing lifecycle. With the inclusion of AI-based analytics, marketers will be able to leverage their intuitive decision-making processes with quantifiable and replicable measures and approaches that can lead to true consumer trust and lasting brand resonance. The framework proposed can provide practitioners and researchers with a scalable basis for implementing intelligent systems in the context of influencer marketing. Recent computer science research further demonstrates that AI-driven frameworks spanning generative content modelling, AI-powered CRM architectures for understanding consumer preferences on social media, and parasocial-trust models of influencer engagement provide strong methodological complements to the predictive approach developed here, while governance and project management considerations for deploying such systems are increasingly addressed in the literature. Concurrently, a growing body of influencer marketing research examines how platform affordances shape information-seeking and trust, how influencer attributes and social satisfaction mediate purchase intention, how influencer marketing drives sustainable consumption, and how social media measurably shapes health-related behaviours all of which motivate the predictive and trust-modelling objectives of this work.

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