Abstract

Earthquake-induced accidents involving buried oil and gas pipelines in water-network regions are governed by coupled seismic, hydrological, geotechnical, and emergency-response factors, while complete accident records are scarce. To support scenario-based consequence analysis under sparse-data conditions, this study develops an accident scenario analysis framework that integrates numerical simulation with Bayesian probabilistic inference. Scenario elements are organized according to four categories: disaster-causing factors, elements at risk, hazard-inducing environment, and emergency management. Finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics are used to quantify pipeline mechanical response and hydraulic-scour effects, and the resulting physical responses are embedded in a dynamic Bayesian network as state evidence and transition constraints. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used to process expert evaluations and determine node probabilities. The resulting multi-mechanism simulation-Bayesian inference framework quantifies the accident chain from earthquake loading to pipeline deformation, leakage, fire or explosion, and emergency control. Forward reasoning estimates the probability of each scenario state, sensitivity analysis identifies key drivers, including strong earthquakes triggering landslides and rainfall during flood seasons, and disaster-chain analysis clarifies the dominant causative pathways. The framework provides a reproducible basis for scenario analysis, consequence assessment, monitoring and early warning, and emergency response planning for buried oil and gas pipelines exposed to seismic hazards in water-network regions.

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