Abstract

Climate change is reshaping species distributions worldwide, while landscape patterns can further influence habitat suitability and species persistence. Fireflies are important environmental indicators, given their high sensitivity to environmental disturbances. However, the effects of climate change and landscape structure on their future survival remain unclear. Here, we used the MaxEnt model to examine the current and predict the future potentially suitable habitats of Aquatica leii, an endemic aquatic firefly in China, under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 climate scenarios. We also examined the spatial associations between potentially suitable habitats and landscape patterns using bivariate spatial autocorrelation analyses. The results showed that soil clay content, soil pH, annual mean temperature, slope, and distance to roads were the main factors influencing habitat suitability. Potentially suitable habitats were concentrated in western Zhejiang Province and are projected to expand under future climate scenarios. Potentially suitable habitats showed significant positive spatial associations with the number of patches, landscape shape index, Shannon’s diversity index, and Shannon’s evenness index. Associations with the largest patch index varied among scenarios, and were generally strengthened under future climate change. Overall, heterogeneous landscapes with diverse and complex habitat structures play an important role in supporting A. leii and should be considered in future conservation planning.

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