Abstract

In chemical industrial parks, evacuation during LPG tank leakage is governed not only by travel distance but by the loss of safe corridors, failed exits, and congestion induced by spatially coupled vapor exposure, explosion overpressure, and thermal radiation. Existing consequence assessment studies usually delineate hazardous zones, while evacuation models often optimize routes on a fixed network with available exits and simplified capacity constraints; the coupling between multi-hazard consequence fields and capacity-constrained evacuation assignment remains insufficient. This study proposes a spatially constrained, congestion-aware evacuation optimization framework. ALOHA-derived AEGL exposure, vapor cloud explosion overpressure, and jet fire radiation zones are mapped onto the plant network to identify unsafe nodes, unavailable links, and failed exits. A capacity-constrained model is then established to minimize system-level RSET under an ASET constraint, and a congestion-aware ant colony algorithm balances evacuees among available exits by incorporating risk and density penalties. In a petrochemical plant case with 717 evacuees and 74 nodes, Gate 3 failure makes the nearest-exit strategy infeasible, whereas the proposed strategy reduces RSET from 560.8 to 504.9 s. The framework links accident consequence assessment with actionable evacuation routing for chemical parks.

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