Abstract

High electricity prices remain a substantial barrier to electric vehicle (EV) diffusion. To address this challenge, we propose a bundled sales model that integrates EVs with distributed, operationally off-grid photovoltaic (PV) systems for self-consumption. Using a sequential game-theoretic framework and scenario analysis calibrated to U.S. and German data, we show that, within the calibrated scenarios and declared system boundaries, bundling accelerates EV adoption and reduces modeled oil dependency, measured as the physical volume of fossil fuel displaced by the bundled fleet. In Germany, bundling increases oil-dependency reduction by 7.8 percentage points, to 34.5%, relative to the traditional unbundled model. The bundled model also delivers stronger decarbonization, yielding incremental lifecycle emission reductions of 11% in the U.S. and 29% in Germany under the declared system boundary. Three insights follow. First, bundling is especially advantageous in markets with high grid tariffs, strong solar irradiance, or falling PV costs. Second, decoupling EV charging from carbon-intensive grids promotes household energy self-sufficiency and helps households become more resilient energy prosumers. Third, the threshold analysis indicates that the model is already viable in high-tariff markets such as Germany, while declining battery costs are likely to trigger a tipping point in lower-tariff markets such as the U.S., supporting a gradual diffusion pattern from suburbs to cities. These findings identify a viable pathway for low-carbon transport transitions through synergistic EV–solar integration.

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