Abstract

Background: Respiratory failure (RF) is a frequently fatal complication of chronic liver disease (CLD), yet population-level data on RF-related mortality trends among adults with CLD are lacking. This study characterized temporal trends and demographic disparities in RF-related mortality among U.S. adults with CLD from 1999 to 2024. Methods: Death certificate data were obtained from the CDC WONDER database for adults aged ≥25 years with both RF (ICD-10: J96) and CLD (ICD-10: K70–K76) listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 were calculated using the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression identified temporal inflection points and annual percentage change (APC). Results: Among 241,075 deaths, the overall AAMR increased 3.2-fold from 2.237 (1999) to 7.162 (2021) per 100,000, then declined to 6.132 by 2024. Joinpoint analysis identified four segments: moderate increase (1999–2006; APC +2.40%), accelerated increase (2006–2018; APC +5.37%), late acceleration period (2018–2021; APC +13.10%), and post-pandemic decline (2021–2024; APC −4.32%; all p < 0.001). The 2024 AAMR remained 174.2% above baseline. The male-to-female rate ratio narrowed from 2.02 to 1.50, with females showing steeper acceleration (+14.38% vs. +12.36%). American Indian or Alaska Native individuals had the highest AAMRs and the most dramatic surge (APC +26.90%). Rural areas surpassed urban AAMRs by 2020, with steeper post-2007 acceleration (+8.74% vs. +5.51%). The Western U.S. consistently had the highest regional rates. Younger adults aged 25–34 and 35–44 showed 2.96-fold and 2.37-fold increases in crude mortality rates, respectively. Approximately 80% of deaths occurred in inpatient settings. Conclusions: RF-related mortality among U.S. adults with CLD increased more than threefold from 1999 to 2021, with a dramatic surge followed by incomplete decline. Persistent disparities by sex, race/ethnicity, urbanization, and region highlight the need for targeted interventions, including expanded screening for alcohol-associated and metabolic liver disease and improved access to hepatology services in underserved communities.

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