Abstract

Influenza remains a significant national health security threat, particularly for vulnerable populations, as existing control measures do not fully mitigate its impact. This gap in protection is especially pronounced early in a pandemic when a well-matched vaccine may not yet be available, as well as in populations unable to mount an optimal vaccine response. Clinical studies support pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) therapeutics as a promising complementary strategy to reduce influenza transmission and disease severity, potentially easing the strain on healthcare systems during outbreaks. This manuscript outlines the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority’s (BARDA’s) target product profile (TPP) for a long-acting influenza PrEP product, reviews the current development landscape, and models the potential impact of early PrEP product deployment using agent-based modeling in a synthetic population of 19.5 million people across pandemic scenarios resembling the 1918, 1968, and 2009 influenza pandemics. Simulations showed that early deployment of a 70%–effective PrEP reduced cumulative and peak infections, delayed the epidemic peak, and provided the greatest benefit in less transmissible pandemics; at 40–50% coverage, PrEP fully mitigated a 2009-like pandemic and substantially reduced transmission in 1918- and 1968-like scenarios. The TPP defines key characteristics of an effective PrEP option for seasonal and pandemic influenza that (1) demonstrates a strong safety and tolerability profile across all populations; (2) targets a direct-acting antiviral mechanism of action; (3) reduces the relative risk of symptomatic influenza infection by at least 70% in an unvaccinated population and (4) provides single-dose, season-long protection to optimize patient adherence. In this context, integrating PrEP into influenza prevention strategies could improve control of virus spread, strengthen protection for high-risk groups, and significantly reduce the overall public health impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza.

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