Abstract

Rapid electric-vehicle adoption is reshaping urban energy and mobility systems, especially in multi-unit dwellings (MUDs), where concentrated charging in shared parking areas simultaneously stresses distribution transformers and amplifies the consequences of charger faults, battery thermal events, smoke spread, and emergency-access constraints. The central argument of this paper is that grid stress, resident-facing service quality, lifecycle cost, and fire-risk exposure in enclosed residential parking should be governed jointly rather than as four separate problems. To make that argument concrete, we develop an integrated framework that couples stochastic EV adoption, residential charging-behavior simulation, XGBoost demand forecasting, and linear-programming-based optimization for coordinated control, and we evaluate it through 1000 Monte Carlo trials on representative Turkish MUDs. Unmanaged charging triggers transformer overload at about 30% EV penetration, whereas coordinated control reduces peak demand by 44.7% (405 kW to 224 kW) and raises load factor from 0.40 to 0.68. Strict capacity protection exposes a sharp service–quality trade-off, with only 8.9% of users reaching 80% state of charge (SOC) by departure. Smart charging lowers upfront cost by about 55% ($200 vs. $439 per dwelling unit) and yields roughly $306 net present value per unit over ten years. Building on these results, we propose a five-pillar fire-risk-aware governance architecture—coordinated control, interoperability standards, time-of-use pricing, building–utility coordination, and monitoring—that turns coordinated charging into a preventive governance layer for reducing hazardous congestion in enclosed residential charging environments.

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