Abstract

Soil quality is central to agricultural sustainability and food security, yet coastal agroecosystems are increasingly threatened by degradation from intensive practices and seawater intrusion. This study aimed to integrate soil quality index (SQI), statistical modeling, machine learning (ML), and decision analysis to assess and manage soil health in the Skhirat coastal plain of Morocco. A total of 30 topsoil samples were collected and analyzed for chemical and nutrient properties. Spatial interpolation revealed strong coast–inland gradients where EC ranged from 0.47 to 6.3 dS/m with the highest salinity in the south-western fringe, while CEC (8.4–39.7 cmol/kg) and OM (0.54–2.81%) peaked inland. Principal component analysis (PCA) explained 65.9% of total variance, with salinity drivers loading negatively against fertility indicators. Redundancy analysis (RDA) biplots highlighted antagonism between salinity and fertility axes. The PCA-minimum data set (MDS)-SQI integrated key indicators and ranged from 0.084 to 0.897 (mean 0.614), classifying 33% of sites as low quality. The ML model linear regression achieved the best performance (R2 = 0.907). Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) using TOPSIS and PROMETHEE II prioritized coastal sites with indices up to 0.882, and robust underweight sensitivity (Spearman ρ = 0.992). This integrated framework demonstrates that soil chemical monitoring, AI prediction, and MCDA can jointly deliver robust, site-specific management strategies for vulnerable coastal agroecosystems.

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