Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems for intensive care units (ICUs) must support early risk prediction while producing explanations that clinicians can inspect, question, and relate to physiological reasoning. Deep neural networks (DNNs) can learn complex temporal patterns from electronic health records (EHRs), but their internal representations are often difficult to translate into clinically actionable explanations. Gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) offer more transparent decision rules, yet they may not capture the full temporal and nonlinear structure of high-dimensional ICU data. This paper presents a causal-pathway-guided DNN–GBDT distillation framework for interpretable ICU decision support. The framework first estimates a directed acyclic graph (DAG), denoted by G, from multivariate ICU time-series data and then uses the graph to guide representation learning in a DNN teacher model through causal gating. The learned teacher is distilled into a GBDT student model using soft predictive targets and a causal attribution-guided split-selection procedure, so that the final model approximates the teacher predictions while prioritizing tree splits aligned with plausible physiological pathways. Experiments using Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) data evaluate sepsis onset and in-hospital mortality prediction through discrimination, precision–recall performance, calibration-oriented reporting, causal consistency, and clinical utility indicators. The proposed causal-aware distilled GBDT achieves stronger predictive performance than conventional interpretable baselines and substantially higher causal consistency than black-box temporal models. The results suggest that causal structure can serve as an inductive bias for converting complex temporal prediction into interpretable rule-based clinical reasoning. The paper also discusses limitations related to observational causal discovery, unmeasured confounding, temporal stationarity, and clinical deployment, following recent reporting expectations for AI-based clinical prediction models.

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