Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular risk prediction models are central to primary prevention strategies, yet substantial variability exists between contemporary and traditional equations used in clinical practice. In Spain, SCORE2 and REGICOR currently coexist as major cardiovascular risk assessment tools despite important methodological differences. However, evidence regarding their concordance in large occupational populations remains limited. Objective: To evaluate the agreement between SCORE2 and REGICOR in cardiovascular risk stratification among Spanish workers and to quantify the extent of cardiovascular risk reclassification associated with SCORE2 implementation. Methods: A multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted in 216,310 Spanish workers aged 40–64 years undergoing routine occupational health examinations between 2019 and 2024. Cardiovascular risk was estimated using SCORE2, REGICOR, ERICE, DORICA, Globorisk, and Framingham-based equations. High-risk categories were defined according to the thresholds recommended for each model. Agreement between categorical classifications was assessed using Cohen’s kappa coefficient, whereas Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated for continuous risk estimates. Results: SCORE2 classified 15,617 workers (7.22%) as high cardiovascular risk, whereas REGICOR identified only 4409 individuals (2.04%). Among workers classified as high risk by SCORE2, 14,387 (92.1%) were not identified as high risk by REGICOR. Agreement between SCORE2 and REGICOR was slight (kappa = 0.094), indicating minimal concordance in high-risk classification. By contrast, SCORE2 demonstrated higher agreement with Framingham hard coronary events (kappa = 0.567) and Globorisk (kappa = 0.534). Correlation analyses showed strong associations between SCORE2 and several continuous cardiovascular risk estimates, including the Framingham categorical score (r = 0.768), Framingham hard coronary events (r = 0.758), and Globorisk (r = 0.739), whereas the correlation between SCORE2 and REGICOR was substantially lower (r = 0.251). These findings indicate that strong statistical correlation does not necessarily translate into clinically meaningful agreement in cardiovascular risk categorization. Conclusions: Substantial discordance exists between SCORE2 and REGICOR in the identification of high cardiovascular risk among Spanish workers. SCORE2 consistently classified a considerably larger proportion of individuals as high risk, whereas REGICOR showed limited concordance with contemporary cardiovascular prediction models. Continued reliance on REGICOR instead of SCORE2 may lead to under-identification of workers who could currently be considered candidates for intensified primary cardiovascular prevention according to contemporary European prevention strategies. Nevertheless, the present study does not establish which model provides superior prediction of future cardiovascular events, and prospective outcome-based validation studies remain necessary.

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