Abstract

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Buses (FCEBs) are a promising solution for decarbonizing public transport. Their operational feasibility in developing countries depends on hydrogen-supply costs and infrastructure readiness. The Ministry of Energy has reported a 400% increase in imported natural-gas costs due to current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, exposing the strategic vulnerability of relying on imported diesel for public transport. This study assesses the operational hydrogen demand, fuel-cost implications, and avoided diesel tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with gradually integrating FCEBs into Jordan’s Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project. The baseline system consists of 64 diesel buses covering about 11 million kilometers annually, consuming around 3 million liters of diesel and emitting roughly 8108.3 tons of CO2. Fleet transition scenarios are assessed for 2030, 2035, and 2040, with FCEB-integration ratios of 10%, 15%, and 25%. Under the reference assumption of equivalent-duty replacement, avoided diesel tailpipe CO2 emissions increase with the diesel service displaced by FCEBs, reaching 25.7% at the highest penetration level. At the $6/kg reference hydrogen-price input, FCEB integration results in higher operational fuel costs than diesel-only operation. Under the constant diesel-price reference, mixed-fleet operation becomes cost-competitive at hydrogen prices of $1/kg and $2/kg, with operational fuel-cost savings of up to 16.97%. Within the operational fuel-cost boundary of this study, mixed-fleet competitiveness is influenced by both the assumed hydrogen fuel price and diesel-price trajectory. The results support gradual deployment, subject to the greenhouse-gas intensity of the hydrogen-production and delivery pathway and the readiness of hydrogen supply and depot infrastructure.

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