Archive/Future Projections of Lifecycle Cost and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Light-Duty Vehicles
Future Projections of Lifecycle Cost and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Light-Duty Vehicles
Karim Hamza, Kenneth Laberteaux, Kang-Ching Chu et al.
3 juillet 2026
en

Abstract

Vehicles with electrified powertrains carry the promise of significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a lifecycle analysis (LCA) standpoint compared to conventional internal combustion engine (CICE) vehicles. However, trade-offs exist between different types of electrified powertrains in terms of cost, consumer acceptance, and GHG reduction efficacy for different operating conditions. The open-source tool CarGHG was developed with an aim to enable the exploration of a plethora of parametric study scenarios, including the cost of electrification technologies, different driving patterns and charging habits, and the cost and carbon intensity of electricity and fuel blends. This paper introduces the framework of CarGHG, then showcases total cost of ownership (TCO) and LCA GHG results for select models of light-duty vehicles. Another capability of CarGHG, which is the ability to estimate the performance of “virtual” vehicle models (perceived vehicle design specifications not yet on the market), is utilized to explore future scenarios of electrification and low-carbon fuel blends for Small Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), a popular light-duty vehicle segment in North America. With opportunities, but also uncertainties, in future scenarios, it is likely wise to continue pursuing multiple ways towards the reduction of LCA GHG.

IPC Classification

B60H01

Keywords

futureprojectionslifecyclecostgreenhouseemissionslight-dutyvehiclesworldelectricvehiclejournalelectrifiedpowertrainscarrypromisesignificantreductionsanalysisstandpointcomparedconventionalinternalcombustion
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