Abstract

Anthropogenic activities and environmental changes have exerted an increasingly high impact on the habitats of wild animals, especially endangered species. Researchers have paid attention to the effects of future climate change on wildlife habitats. However, the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of Tragopan birds has rarely been reported. Here, we used the Maxent model to assess the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution of five Tragopan species. The results showed that the SSP585 scenario projected relatively favorable conditions, with the total area of suitable habitats expected to show an overall increasing trend over time. Centroid analysis revealed that the centroid gradually shifts toward lower latitudes and elevations due to climate warming. Environmental factor analysis showed that human-induced factors (particularly land use) are the main determinants affecting the habitat suitability of Tragopan birds. Notably, a comparison between dispersal velocity and biological velocity showed that despite the predicted gradual expansion of habitat area, Tragopan birds may be difficult to expand into the newly suitable habitat regions. We further emphasize that establishing ecological corridors and setting up new protected areas will have a more significant impact on conserving the Tragopan birds.

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