Abstract

Morocco, located at the southern margin of the Mediterranean climate-change hotspot, is exposed to a rapidly evolving precipitation regime whose national-scale characterization remains incomplete. This study delivers an integrated assessment of the spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and its extremes over the country during the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) climate-normal period (1991–2020), based on daily observations from 31 synoptic stations operated by the Direction Générale de la Météorologie (DGM). Trends in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation were quantified using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test combined with Sen’s slope estimator, while the structural transformation of the rainfall regime was characterized through three indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI): the Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs), the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) and the amount of precipitation from very wet days (R95pTOT). The results reveal an apparent tendency toward a negative trend, with a predominance of negative precipitation trends in winter and early spring, most pronounced in February, that reach statistical significance at only a limited number of stations, partly offset by a spatially coherent wetting in November over central and eastern Morocco. The joint analysis of the three ETCCDI indices indicates a north–south contrasted reorganization: northern stations exhibit longer dry spells coexisting with intensified extreme rainfall, whereas southern stations show a generalized weakening of both intensity and extremes. These findings point to a structural shift toward more episodic and contrasted precipitation regimes, with the wet season starting later, ending earlier and concentrating rainfall into fewer but more intense events. The analysis provides an updated observational baseline for the validation of CMIP6 based regional projections and for the design of climate-resilient water and agricultural strategies in Morocco.

IPC Classification

Keywords