Abstract

Clarifying how ecosystem services (ESs) change over time and space, and how their trade-offs and synergies evolve, is essential for regional ecological protection and high-quality development. Using Shandong Province as a case study, this research quantified carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ) with the InVEST model. GeoDetector, geographically weighted regression (GWR), XGBoost-SHAP, Spearman’s rank correlation, bivariate spatial autocorrelation, and spatial overlay analysis were then combined to examine ES patterns, driving mechanisms, and interaction relationships. The main findings are as follows. (1) During 2000–2020, the most evident land-use changes occurred in cropland, grassland, built-up land, and water bodies. (2) The dominant drivers varied markedly among services: CS and HQ were mainly shaped by land-use type and human activity, WY was chiefly controlled by precipitation, and SC was most sensitive to topographic conditions. Factor interactions were generally stronger than single-factor effects, with two-factor enhancement being the prevailing interaction type. (3) ES trade-off/synergy relationships were relatively stable through time. A strong synergy persisted between CS and HQ, whereas CS and SC exhibited a moderate synergistic relationship. By contrast, WY showed evident trade-offs with both HQ and CS, with the WY–HQ trade-off being particularly pronounced. (4) Spatial overlay results showed that the overall ES synergy level remained low. Low-synergy areas accounted for 69.23–70.94% of the study area across the study period. Although strong-trade-off areas expanded overall, high-synergy areas remained limited, indicating considerable room to improve the coordinated provision of ESs in Shandong Province.

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