Abstract

This study examines whether stablecoin and Bitcoin transaction volumes in Brazil are associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. Using monthly data from August 2019 to December 2025, the analysis compares the association of domestic economic activity, proxied by the IBCBr, and the BRLUSD exchange rate with the transaction volumes of stablecoins and Bitcoin reported in the open data records of the Receita Federal do Brasil, the Brazilian Tax Administration. The empirical strategy distinguishes between long-run relationships in log levels and short-run dynamics in log differences, applies Johansen cointegration and ARDL bounds testing, and estimates an error correction model for stablecoins. Global crypto market controls are used as complementary measures to assess the contrast between the two assets. The results show that stablecoin transaction volume is positively and significantly associated with Brazilian economic activity in both long-run and short-run specifications and that this association is not explained by global stablecoin activity. The exchange rate is associated with stablecoin volume mainly through a structural long-run channel rather than immediate monthly effects. In contrast, Bitcoin transaction volume does not exhibit a robust association with domestic economic activity and is instead more strongly associated with global Bitcoin volume. The findings suggest that stablecoins may act as a domestically embedded macro-financial instrument in Brazil. This finding reflects transactional demand, liquidity management, or demand for dollar-linked assets, whereas Bitcoin behaves as a more globally oriented and comparatively detached digital asset. This distinction has important implications for policy, as stablecoins may have stronger implications for monetary transmission, digital dollarisation, and financial intermediation than Bitcoin-focused analyses indicate.

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